live
./round-19

United States Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Austin, USA · 20 October 2024

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:41:01 PM

predicted
Lando Norris
→
actual winner
Charles Leclerc
✗ INCORRECT
./why NOR
share of weighted score
Car Performance 24%
Long Run Pace 16%
Tyre Degradation 11%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Sector Strength 7%
Driver Rating 6%
Luck Factor 6%
Quali vs Teammate 5%
Win Rate 2%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 88 · P1
12%
02
LEC
Charles Leclerc ✓ actual winner
Car 82 · P4
10%
03
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 92 · P5
10%
04
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 83 · P2
9%
05
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 75 · P3
7%
06
RUS
George Russell
Car 59 · P6
7%
07
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 54 · P8
7%
08
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 23 · P7
5%
09
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 30 · P11
4%
10
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 26 · P12
4%
11
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 89 · P18
4%
12
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 75 · P10
4%
13
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 32 · P11
3%
14
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 21 · P9
3%
15
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 28 · P13
3%
16
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 26 · P17
3%
17
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 15 · P15
3%
18
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 1 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%