live
./round-05

Monaco Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Monte Carlo, Monaco · 23 May 2021

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:41:22 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 29%
Long Run Pace 13%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Reliability 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Luck Factor 8%
Sector Strength 7%
Tyre Degradation 6%
Quali vs Teammate 6%
Win Rate 4%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 0%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 99 · P7
8%
02
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 81 · P2
8%
03
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 88 · P3
8%
04
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 68 · P11
7%
05
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 71 · P1
7%
06
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 71 · P4
7%
07
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 69 · P5
7%
08
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 52 · P6
6%
09
GIO
Antonio Giovinazzi
Car 31 · P10
5%
10
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 51 · P11
5%
11
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 49 · P13
5%
12
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 71 · P16
4%
13
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 63 · P8
4%
14
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 55 · P15
4%
15
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 80 · P9
4%
16
RUS
George Russell
Car 15 · P14
4%
17
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 38 · P12
3%
18
LAT
Nicholas Latifi
Car 19 · P17
2%
19
MAZ
Nikita Mazepin
Car 50 · P18
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%