live
./round-22

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Abu Dhabi, UAE · 12 December 2021

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:41:44 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 27%
Long Run Pace 11%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Luck Factor 9%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Sector Strength 7%
Tyre Degradation 7%
Win Rate 4%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 99 · P2
10%
02
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 88 · P1
9%
03
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 65 · P10
6%
04
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 71 · P3
6%
05
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 68 · P5
6%
06
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 75 · P7
6%
07
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 50 · P9
6%
08
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 84 · P4
6%
09
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 65 · P11
5%
10
GIO
Antonio Giovinazzi
Car 32 · P13
5%
11
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 58 · P14
5%
12
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 90 · P6
5%
13
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 53 · P8
4%
14
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 45 · P11
3%
15
RUS
George Russell
Car 20 · P16
3%
16
MSC
Mick Schumacher
Car 56 · P18
3%
17
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 48 · P17
3%
18
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 32 · P12
3%
19
LAT
Nicholas Latifi
Car 14 · P15
2%
20
MAZ
Nikita Mazepin
Car 45 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%