live
./round-03

Australian Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Melbourne, Australia · 2 April 2023

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:42:24 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 22%
Reliability 11%
Long Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Win Rate 9%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 6%
Luck Factor 6%
Tyre Degradation 6%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 83 · P1
11%
02
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 87 · P3
10%
03
RUS
George Russell
Car 65 · P2
8%
04
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 76 · P5
7%
05
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 46 · P9
6%
06
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 83 · P19
5%
07
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 79 · P7
5%
08
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 42 · P11
5%
09
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 70 · P4
5%
10
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 55 · P15
5%
11
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 61 · P12
4%
12
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 47 · P6
4%
13
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 29 · P18
4%
14
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 20 · P8
4%
15
DEV
Nyck De Vries
Car 5 · P14
3%
16
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 10 · P11
3%
17
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 3 · P16
3%
18
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 16 · P10
3%
19
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 15 · P13
2%
20
SAR
Logan Sargeant
Car 6 · P17
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%