live
./round-14

Italian Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Monza, Italy · 3 September 2023

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:42:45 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 22%
Reliability 11%
Driver Rating 10%
Long Run Pace 10%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Win Rate 9%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Luck Factor 6%
Tyre Degradation 4%
Adj. Position Gain 2%
Weather Impact 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 81 · P2
13%
02
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 78 · P5
7%
03
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 77 · P3
7%
04
RUS
George Russell
Car 58 · P4
7%
05
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 87 · P8
7%
06
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 61 · P10
6%
07
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 64 · P1
6%
08
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 56 · P9
6%
09
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 10 · P6
5%
10
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 40 · P7
5%
11
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 39 · P16
4%
12
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 45 · P17
4%
13
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 35 · P13
4%
14
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 5 · P11
4%
15
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 45 · P19
4%
16
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 18 · P12
3%
17
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 8 · P15
3%
18
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 7 · P18
3%
19
SAR
Logan Sargeant
Car 4 · P14
3%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%