live
./round-16

Japanese Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Suzuka, Japan · 24 September 2023

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:42:48 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Reliability 11%
Driver Rating 11%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Tyre Degradation 9%
Win Rate 9%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Luck Factor 6%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
Long Run Pace 0%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 92 · P1
10%
02
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 85 · P5
9%
03
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 76 · P4
7%
04
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 60 · P3
7%
05
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 69 · P10
7%
06
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 78 · P6
7%
07
RUS
George Russell
Car 65 · P8
7%
08
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 57 · P2
6%
09
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 46 · P11
6%
10
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 87 · P7
5%
11
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 22 · P12
5%
12
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 31 · P15
5%
13
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 46 · P13
4%
14
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 16 · P9
4%
15
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 21 · P17
3%
16
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 18 · P14
3%
17
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 52 · P16
3%
18
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 13 · P18
2%
19
SAR
Logan Sargeant
Car 6 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%