live
./round-16

Russian Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Sochi, Russia · 30 September 2018

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:43:50 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Lewis Hamilton
✓ CORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Reliability 11%
Long Run Pace 10%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Driver Rating 8%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Luck Factor 6%
Tyre Degradation 6%
Win Rate 5%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton ✓ actual winner
Car 98 · P2
13%
02
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 99 · P3
8%
03
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 84 · P1
8%
04
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 89 · P4
7%
05
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 65 · P11
6%
06
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 46 · P8
5%
07
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 40 · P13
4%
08
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 42 · P14
4%
09
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 44 · P6
4%
10
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 32 · P5
4%
11
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 43 · P16
4%
12
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 64 · P11
4%
13
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 22 · P7
4%
14
SIR
Sergey Sirotkin
Car 50 · P17
4%
15
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 14 · P12
4%
16
ERI
Marcus Ericsson
Car 13 · P10
4%
17
GRO
Romain Grosjean
Car 31 · P9
4%
18
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 44 · P19
3%
19
VAN
Stoffel Vandoorne
Car 14 · P18
3%
20
HAR
Brendon Hartley
Car 14 · P15
3%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%