live
./round-17

Japanese Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Suzuka, Japan · 7 October 2018

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:43:52 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Lewis Hamilton
✓ CORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 27%
Long Run Pace 12%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Driver Rating 8%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Luck Factor 6%
Win Rate 5%
Tyre Degradation 5%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton ✓ actual winner
Car 100 · P1
12%
02
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 97 · P9
12%
03
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 85 · P2
9%
04
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 66 · P3
7%
05
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 91 · P4
6%
06
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 39 · P10
5%
07
GRO
Romain Grosjean
Car 37 · P5
5%
08
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 34 · P13
4%
09
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 41 · P8
4%
10
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 77 · P14
4%
11
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 22 · P11
4%
12
SIR
Sergey Sirotkin
Car 45 · P16
4%
13
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 45 · P12
4%
14
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 36 · P15
3%
15
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 13 · P7
3%
16
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 45 · P17
3%
17
VAN
Stoffel Vandoorne
Car 14 · P18
3%
18
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 30 · P11
3%
19
HAR
Brendon Hartley
Car 11 · P6
3%
20
ERI
Marcus Ericsson
Car 13 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%