live
./round-18

United States Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Austin, USA · 21 October 2018

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:43:54 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Kimi Räikkönen
✗ INCORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 27%
Reliability 11%
Long Run Pace 10%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Driver Rating 8%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Tyre Degradation 6%
Win Rate 5%
Luck Factor 5%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
Weather Impact 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 99 · P1
11%
02
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 99 · P2
10%
03
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 89 · P4
8%
04
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen ✓ actual winner
Car 92 · P3
7%
05
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 72 · P14
5%
06
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 71 · P5
5%
07
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 51 · P10
5%
08
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 46 · P11
5%
09
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 50 · P6
5%
10
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 49 · P7
4%
11
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 22 · P9
4%
12
GRO
Romain Grosjean
Car 40 · P8
4%
13
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 44 · P15
4%
14
SIR
Sergey Sirotkin
Car 50 · P16
4%
15
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 47 · P17
4%
16
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 14 · P12
3%
17
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 41 · P11
3%
18
VAN
Stoffel Vandoorne
Car 21 · P19
3%
19
ERI
Marcus Ericsson
Car 26 · P18
3%
20
HAR
Brendon Hartley
Car 14 · P13
3%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%