live
./round-21

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Abu Dhabi, UAE · 25 November 2018

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:43:58 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Lewis Hamilton
✓ CORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 28%
Reliability 11%
Long Run Pace 10%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Driver Rating 9%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Sector Strength 7%
Tyre Degradation 7%
Win Rate 6%
Luck Factor 2%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton ✓ actual winner
Car 99 · P1
12%
02
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 99 · P3
10%
03
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 90 · P4
8%
04
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 67 · P6
7%
05
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 86 · P2
6%
06
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 64 · P5
6%
07
GRO
Romain Grosjean
Car 31 · P7
5%
08
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 25 · P8
5%
09
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 39 · P9
5%
10
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 46 · P13
4%
11
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 41 · P10
4%
12
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 40 · P14
4%
13
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 39 · P11
4%
14
SIR
Sergey Sirotkin
Car 45 · P18
3%
15
ERI
Marcus Ericsson
Car 13 · P11
3%
16
VAN
Stoffel Vandoorne
Car 14 · P17
3%
17
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 34 · P19
3%
18
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 14 · P16
3%
19
HAR
Brendon Hartley
Car 12 · P15
3%
20
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 31 · P12
3%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%