live
./round-17

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Abu Dhabi, UAE · 13 December 2020

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:44:54 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Reliability 10%
Long Run Pace 10%
Adj. Grid Position 9%
Driver Rating 9%
Sector Strength 8%
Tyre Degradation 7%
Win Rate 7%
Quali vs Teammate 6%
Luck Factor 6%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 100 · P3
13%
02
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 61 · P4
7%
03
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 89 · P2
7%
04
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 52 · P6
7%
05
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 70 · P1
6%
06
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 53 · P11
6%
07
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 52 · P9
6%
08
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 59 · P14
5%
09
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 65 · P5
5%
10
VET
Sebastian Vettel
Car 59 · P12
5%
11
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 46 · P11
5%
12
KVY
Daniil Kvyat
Car 37 · P7
5%
13
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 29 · P10
4%
14
RAI
Kimi Räikkönen
Car 33 · P15
4%
15
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 39 · P8
4%
16
GIO
Antonio Giovinazzi
Car 14 · P13
4%
17
RUS
George Russell
Car 2 · P17
3%
18
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 12 · P16
2%
19
LAT
Nicholas Latifi
Car 3 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%