live
./round-03

Australian Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Melbourne, Australia · 24 March 2024

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:40:31 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual winner
Carlos Sainz
✗ INCORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 23%
Long Run Pace 19%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Reliability 9%
Quali vs Teammate 9%
Sector Strength 8%
Driver Rating 7%
Luck Factor 6%
Win Rate 4%
Tyre Degradation 3%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 82 · P1
10%
02
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 89 · P5
9%
03
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 80 · P3
8%
04
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 85 · P4
8%
05
SAI
Carlos Sainz ✓ actual winner
Car 86 · P2
8%
06
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 79 · P6
7%
07
RUS
George Russell
Car 68 · P7
6%
08
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 60 · P10
6%
09
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 37 · P9
5%
10
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 89 · P11
5%
11
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 24 · P8
4%
12
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 34 · P14
4%
13
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 22 · P12
3%
14
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 30 · P13
3%
15
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 37 · P16
3%
16
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 42 · P17
3%
17
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 30 · P15
3%
18
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 1 · P18
2%
19
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 18 · P11
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%