./round-19 · sprint prediction

United States Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Austin, USA · 19 October 2024

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/4/2026, 11:33:29 PM

predicted

Max Verstappen

→

actual sprint winner

Max Verstappen

✓ CORRECT

./why VER

share of weighted score

Adj. Grid Position 30%

Car Performance 25%

Short Run Pace 12%

Driver Rating 9%

SQ vs Teammate 7%

Luck Factor 7%

Win Rate 5%

Weather Impact 5%

./all drivers

Pos

Driver

Win %

Car

Grid

Actual Pos

VER

Max Verstappen ✓ sprint winner

Car 83 · P1

14%

NOR

Lando Norris

Car 100 · P4

12%

100

LEC

Charles Leclerc

Car 96 · P3

11%

SAI

Carlos Sainz

Car 96 · P5

RUS

George Russell

Car 80 · P2

HAM

Lewis Hamilton

Car 80 · P7

PIA

Oscar Piastri

Car 100 · P15

100

P15

P10

HUL

Nico Hulkenberg

Car 29 · P6

PER

Sergio Perez

Car 83 · P11

P11

MAG

Kevin Magnussen

Car 29 · P8

TSU

Yuki Tsunoda

Car 22 · P9

P11

GAS

Pierre Gasly

Car 22 · P11

P11

P14

ALO

Fernando Alonso

Car 36 · P13

P13

P18

STR

Lance Stroll

Car 36 · P12

P12

P13

BOT

Valtteri Bottas

Car 50 · P18

P18

P20

OCO

Esteban Ocon

Car 22 · P16

P16

P15

ALB

Alexander Albon

Car 2 · P17

P17

ZHO

Guanyu Zhou

Car 50 · P19

P19

./compare drivers

Driver Alpha

Driver Beta

./sprint weights

Car Performance 25%

Adj. Grid Position 25%

Short Run Pace 10%

Driver Rating 10%

Weather Impact 8%

Win Rate 8%

Luck Factor 8%

SQ vs Teammate 6%

Grid position weighted higher — no pit stop strategy in ~17 lap sprint.

./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

Car Performance 25 Adj. Grid Position 25 Short Run Pace 10 Driver Rating 10 Weather Impact 8 Win Rate 8 Luck Factor 8 SQ vs Teammate 6

total weight 100

./sprint weights

Car Performance 25%

Adj. Grid Position 25%

Short Run Pace 10%

Driver Rating 10%

Weather Impact 8%

Win Rate 8%

Luck Factor 8%

SQ vs Teammate 6%