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./round-18 · sprint prediction

United States Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Austin, USA · 21 October 2023

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/4/2026, 11:34:06 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual sprint winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 29%
Adj. Grid Position 29%
Short Run Pace 12%
Driver Rating 11%
Win Rate 5%
SQ vs Teammate 5%
Luck Factor 5%
Weather Impact 5%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ sprint winner
Car 100 · P1
16%
02
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 100 · P7
9%
03
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 69 · P3
8%
04
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 49 · P4
8%
05
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 63 · P2
8%
06
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 63 · P6
7%
07
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 49 · P5
7%
08
RUS
George Russell
Car 69 · P8
6%
09
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 56 · P11
4%
10
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 33 · P10
4%
11
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 8 · P9
4%
12
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 56 · P13
3%
13
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 33 · P12
3%
14
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 50 · P15
3%
15
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 9 · P14
3%
16
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 50 · P16
2%
17
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 9 · P17
2%
18
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 9 · P18
2%
19
SAR
Logan Sargeant
Car 8 · P19
1%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%