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./round-06 · sprint prediction

Miami Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Miami, USA · 4 May 2024

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/4/2026, 11:33:23 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual sprint winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Adj. Grid Position 32%
Car Performance 26%
Short Run Pace 12%
Driver Rating 10%
Win Rate 6%
Weather Impact 5%
SQ vs Teammate 5%
Luck Factor 4%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ sprint winner
Car 83 · P1
11%
02
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 96 · P2
11%
03
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 83 · P3
9%
04
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 100 · P9
9%
05
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 96 · P5
8%
06
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 100 · P6
8%
07
RUS
George Russell
Car 80 · P11
5%
08
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 22 · P4
5%
09
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 80 · P11
5%
10
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 36 · P8
4%
11
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 36 · P7
4%
12
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 29 · P10
4%
13
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 29 · P13
3%
14
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 22 · P12
3%
15
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 50 · P16
2%
16
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 22 · P14
2%
17
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 22 · P15
2%
18
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 50 · P17
2%
19
SAR
Logan Sargeant
Car 2 · P18
2%
20
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 2 · P19
1%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%