live
./round-19

United States Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Austin, USA · 19 October 2025

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:40:16 PM

predicted
Lando Norris
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why NOR
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Long Run Pace 17%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Sector Strength 8%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Driver Rating 7%
Quali vs Teammate 6%
Win Rate 3%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
Luck Factor 0%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 92 · P2
10%
02
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 67 · P1
9%
03
RUS
George Russell
Car 59 · P4
8%
04
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 77 · P6
8%
05
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 80 · P5
7%
06
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 68 · P3
6%
07
ANT
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Car 75 · P7
6%
08
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 36 · P10
5%
09
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 16 · P8
4%
10
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 39 · P13
4%
11
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 36 · P9
4%
12
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 14 · P11
4%
13
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 59 · P11
4%
14
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 30 · P12
4%
15
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 8 · P15
3%
16
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 50 · P14
3%
17
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 25 · P18
3%
18
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 27 · P19
3%
19
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 8 · P17
3%
20
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 20 · P16
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%