live
./round-23

Qatar Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Lusail, Qatar · 30 November 2025

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:40:21 PM

predicted
Oscar Piastri
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why PIA
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Long Run Pace 20%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Sector Strength 8%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Driver Rating 7%
Quali vs Teammate 5%
Win Rate 3%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
Luck Factor 0%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 96 · P1
9%
02
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 65 · P3
9%
03
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 92 · P2
9%
04
RUS
George Russell
Car 69 · P4
8%
05
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 73 · P10
7%
06
ANT
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Car 65 · P5
6%
07
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 35 · P8
5%
08
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 26 · P6
5%
09
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 34 · P12
5%
10
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 80 · P17
5%
11
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 48 · P9
4%
12
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 22 · P11
4%
13
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 44 · P11
4%
14
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 29 · P14
3%
15
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 37 · P7
3%
16
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 25 · P15
3%
17
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 32 · P16
3%
18
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 16 · P13
3%
19
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 30 · P19
2%
20
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 22 · P18
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%