live
./round-24

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Abu Dhabi, UAE · 7 December 2025

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:40:23 PM

predicted
George Russell
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why RUS
share of weighted score
Long Run Pace 21%
Car Performance 20%
Reliability 11%
Quali vs Teammate 10%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Sector Strength 6%
Driver Rating 5%
Luck Factor 5%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
Win Rate 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
RUS
George Russell
Car 71 · P4
11%
02
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 97 · P2
9%
03
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 71 · P1
8%
04
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 90 · P3
7%
05
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 43 · P11
7%
06
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 73 · P5
7%
07
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 80 · P15
7%
08
ANT
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Car 75 · P13
5%
09
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 40 · P6
5%
10
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 27 · P9
4%
11
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 27 · P17
4%
12
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 31 · P8
4%
13
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 59 · P12
3%
14
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 16 · P11
3%
15
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 40 · P10
3%
16
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 8 · P7
3%
17
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 23 · P14
3%
18
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 37 · P16
3%
19
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 51 · P18
2%
20
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 50 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%