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./round-13 · sprint prediction

Belgian Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Spa, Belgium · 26 July 2025

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/4/2026, 11:33:06 PM

predicted
Oscar Piastri
→
actual sprint winner
Max Verstappen
✗ INCORRECT
./why PIA
share of weighted score
Car Performance 32%
Adj. Grid Position 32%
Short Run Pace 13%
Driver Rating 8%
Weather Impact 5%
SQ vs Teammate 4%
Luck Factor 4%
Win Rate 2%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 100 · P1
12%
02
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 100 · P3
11%
03
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ sprint winner
Car 64 · P2
10%
04
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 69 · P4
8%
05
RUS
George Russell
Car 73 · P12
6%
06
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 29 · P5
5%
07
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 50 · P8
5%
08
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 34 · P6
5%
09
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 29 · P7
4%
10
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 28 · P9
4%
11
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 64 · P11
4%
12
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 69 · P17
4%
13
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 16 · P10
3%
14
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 28 · P11
3%
15
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 23 · P13
3%
16
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 23 · P14
3%
17
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 34 · P15
2%
18
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 16 · P16
2%
19
ANT
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Car 73 · P19
2%
20
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 50 · P18
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%