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./round-21 · sprint prediction

São Paulo Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Sao Paulo, Brazil · 8 November 2025

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/4/2026, 11:33:12 PM

predicted
Lando Norris
→
actual sprint winner
Lando Norris
✓ CORRECT
./why NOR
share of weighted score
Car Performance 32%
Adj. Grid Position 32%
Short Run Pace 13%
Driver Rating 8%
Weather Impact 5%
Luck Factor 4%
SQ vs Teammate 4%
Win Rate 3%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
NOR
Lando Norris ✓ sprint winner
Car 100 · P1
12%
02
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 64 · P6
10%
03
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 100 · P3
10%
04
RUS
George Russell
Car 73 · P4
9%
05
ANT
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Car 73 · P2
7%
06
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 69 · P8
7%
07
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 69 · P11
5%
08
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 23 · P5
5%
09
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 28 · P9
4%
10
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 23 · P7
4%
11
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 34 · P11
4%
12
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 50 · P12
3%
13
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 29 · P14
3%
14
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 16 · P10
3%
15
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 16 · P13
3%
16
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 50 · P15
2%
17
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 64 · P16
2%
18
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 28 · P17
2%
19
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 29 · P18
2%
20
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 34 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%