live
./round-18

Japanese Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Suzuka, Japan · 9 October 2022

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:42:13 PM

predicted
Max Verstappen
→
actual winner
Max Verstappen
✓ CORRECT
./why VER
share of weighted score
Car Performance 25%
Long Run Pace 10%
Luck Factor 10%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Driver Rating 9%
Reliability 8%
Sector Strength 8%
Win Rate 7%
Quali vs Teammate 6%
Tyre Degradation 5%
Weather Impact 3%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
VER
Max Verstappen ✓ actual winner
Car 91 · P1
13%
02
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 91 · P6
9%
03
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 83 · P4
8%
04
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 79 · P2
8%
05
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 55 · P10
7%
06
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 81 · P3
6%
07
RUS
George Russell
Car 63 · P8
6%
08
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 65 · P7
5%
09
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 52 · P5
5%
10
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 44 · P15
4%
11
RIC
Daniel Ricciardo
Car 56 · P11
4%
12
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 37 · P16
4%
13
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 24 · P18
4%
14
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 44 · P11
4%
15
MSC
Mick Schumacher
Car 38 · P14
4%
16
TSU
Yuki Tsunoda
Car 22 · P12
3%
17
ZHO
Guanyu Zhou
Car 21 · P13
3%
18
MAG
Kevin Magnussen
Car 17 · P17
3%
19
LAT
Nicholas Latifi
Car 30 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%