live
./round-14

Spanish Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Madrid, Spain · 13 September 2026

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 9/12/2026, 4:08:02 PM

predicted
Kimi Antonelli
→
actual winner
Kimi Antonelli
✓ CORRECT
./why ANT
share of weighted score
Car Performance 22%
Long Run Pace 17%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Driver Rating 8%
Sector Strength 8%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Tyre Degradation 5%
Win Rate 5%
Luck Factor 5%
Weather Impact 1%
Adj. Position Gain 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
ANT
Kimi Antonelli ✓ actual winner
Car 80 · P2
11%
02
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 97 · P4
10%
03
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 85 · P5
8%
04
RUS
George Russell
Car 82 · P6
8%
05
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 81 · P7
7%
06
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 75 · P3
7%
07
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 76 · P1
6%
08
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 37 · P9
5%
09
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 49 · P13
5%
10
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 27 · P11
4%
11
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 52 · P8
4%
12
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 50 · P18
4%
13
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 27 · P12
4%
14
LIN
Arvid Lindblad
Car 54 · P10
3%
15
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 19 · P15
3%
16
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 33 · P16
3%
17
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 27 · P17
3%
18
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 31 · P11
3%
19
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 5 · P20
2%
20
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 47 · P19
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%