live
./round-12

Dutch Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Zandvoort, Netherlands · 23 August 2026

Model: weighted-v3 · Computed: 8/28/2026, 8:43:24 PM

predicted
Lewis Hamilton
→
actual winner
Lando Norris
✗ INCORRECT
./why HAM
share of weighted score
Car Performance 26%
Long Run Pace 21%
Reliability 11%
Adj. Grid Position 10%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 7%
Quali vs Teammate 7%
Driver Rating 6%
Weather Impact 3%
Win Rate 1%
Adj. Position Gain 0%
Tyre Degradation 0%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 93 · P5
9%
02
NOR
Lando Norris ✓ actual winner
Car 81 · P1
9%
03
ANT
Kimi Antonelli
Car 77 · P3
9%
04
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 81 · P6
7%
05
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 87 · P4
7%
06
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 80 · P7
7%
07
RUS
George Russell
Car 82 · P2
7%
08
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 46 · P11
5%
09
LIN
Arvid Lindblad
Car 54 · P10
5%
10
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 32 · P9
5%
11
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 60 · P17
4%
12
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 31 · P14
3%
13
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 36 · P12
3%
14
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 21 · P15
3%
15
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 22 · P20
3%
16
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 34 · P13
3%
17
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 51 · P8
3%
18
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 35 · P16
3%
19
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 39 · P18
2%
20
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 16 · P19
2%
21
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 25 · P21
2%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./model weights
Car Performance 20%
Long Run Pace 15%
Tyre Degradation 8%
Reliability 8%
Quali vs Teammate 8%
Driver Rating 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 7%
Sector Strength 6%
Adj. Grid Position 7%
Adj. Position Gain 3%
Weather Impact 2%