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./round-12 · sprint prediction

Dutch Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Zandvoort, Netherlands · 22 August 2026

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 8/22/2026, 3:40:37 PM

predicted
George Russell
→
actual sprint winner
George Russell
✓ CORRECT
./why RUS
share of weighted score
Adj. Grid Position 32%
Car Performance 31%
Short Run Pace 13%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 5%
Win Rate 4%
SQ vs Teammate 4%
Luck Factor 1%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
RUS
George Russell ✓ sprint winner
Car 96 · P1
10%
02
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 69 · P2
10%
03
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 100 · P3
10%
04
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 100 · P7
9%
05
ANT
Kimi Antonelli
Car 96 · P5
9%
06
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 69 · P4
7%
07
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 71 · P6
7%
08
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 56 · P8
5%
09
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 36 · P9
5%
10
LIN
Arvid Lindblad
Car 59 · P10
5%
11
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 59 · P11
4%
12
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 56 · P12
4%
13
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 33 · P14
3%
14
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 36 · P13
2%
15
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 22 · P15
2%
16
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 33 · P16
2%
17
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 22 · P17
2%
18
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 50 · P20
2%
19
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 50 · P19
1%
20
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 3 · P18
1%
21
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 3 · P21
1%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%