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./round-02 · sprint prediction

Chinese Grand Prix

TOSS-UP

Shanghai, China · 14 March 2026

Model: sprint-v2 · Computed: 6/28/2026, 7:46:08 AM

predicted
George Russell
→
actual sprint winner
George Russell
✓ CORRECT
./why RUS
share of weighted score
Car Performance 30%
Adj. Grid Position 30%
Short Run Pace 12%
Driver Rating 10%
SQ vs Teammate 5%
Weather Impact 5%
Win Rate 5%
Luck Factor 4%
./all drivers
Pos
Driver
Win %
01
RUS
George Russell ✓ sprint winner
Car 100 · P1
12%
02
LEC
Charles Leclerc
Car 94 · P6
9%
03
ANT
Kimi Antonelli
Car 100 · P2
9%
04
HAM
Lewis Hamilton
Car 94 · P4
8%
05
NOR
Lando Norris
Car 60 · P3
8%
06
VER
Max Verstappen
Car 58 · P8
7%
07
PIA
Oscar Piastri
Car 60 · P5
6%
08
GAS
Pierre Gasly
Car 60 · P7
5%
09
BEA
Oliver Bearman
Car 39 · P9
4%
10
HAD
Isack Hadjar
Car 58 · P10
4%
11
OCO
Esteban Ocon
Car 39 · P11
3%
12
HUL
Nico Hulkenberg
Car 26 · P11
3%
13
LAW
Liam Lawson
Car 50 · P12
3%
14
LIN
Arvid Lindblad
Car 50 · P14
3%
15
BOR
Gabriel Bortoleto
Car 26 · P13
3%
16
COL
Franco Colapinto
Car 60 · P15
3%
17
ALO
Fernando Alonso
Car 50 · P17
2%
18
SAI
Carlos Sainz
Car 28 · P16
2%
19
STR
Lance Stroll
Car 50 · P18
2%
20
ALB
Alexander Albon
Car 28 · P21
2%
21
PER
Sergio Perez
Car 4 · P20
1%
22
BOT
Valtteri Bottas
Car 4 · P19
1%
./compare drivers
Driver Alpha
Driver Beta
./what-if lab

Drag the weights to see how the predicted sprint order shifts. Recomputed live in your browser — the model itself is unchanged.

total weight 100
./sprint weights
Car Performance 25%
Adj. Grid Position 25%
Short Run Pace 10%
Driver Rating 10%
Weather Impact 8%
Win Rate 8%
Luck Factor 8%
SQ vs Teammate 6%