./prediction
2020 Race Predictions
weighted-v3 · 17 predictions · 65% accuracy
./season model ratings
Rank
Driver
Score
./prediction history
P1 Hit: 65%
Top 3 Hit: 76%
Top 5 Hit: 100%
Brier: 0.505
17
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P5
wrong
16
Sakhir Grand Prix
Predicted: BOT · Actual: PER · model had them P4
wrong
15
Bahrain Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
14
Turkish Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
13
Emilia Romagna Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
12
Portuguese Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
11
Eifel Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
10
Russian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P2
wrong
09
Tuscan Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
08
Italian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: GAS · model had them P5
wrong
07
Belgian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
06
Spanish Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
05
70th Anniversary Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P5
wrong
04
British Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
03
Hungarian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
02
Styrian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
01
Austrian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P2
wrong
./calibration
17 completed races · Brier 0.505 · dot size ∝ races · dashed line = perfect calibration
./accuracy by season 2020 recap →
Season
GP
Sprint
Overall
2026
8/14(57%)
3/5(60%)
11/19 (58%)
2025
9/24(38%)
3/6(50%)
12/30 (40%)
2024
7/24(29%)
4/6(67%)
11/30 (37%)
2023
18/22(82%)
4/6(67%)
22/28 (79%)
2022
13/22(59%)
2/3(67%)
15/25 (60%)
2021
7/22(32%)
2/3(67%)
9/25 (36%)
2020
11/17(65%)
—
11/17 (65%)
2019
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)
2018
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)