./prediction
2019 Race Predictions
weighted-v3 · 21 predictions · 43% accuracy
./season model ratings
Rank
Driver
Score
./prediction history
P1 Hit: 43%
Top 3 Hit: 95%
Top 5 Hit: 95%
Brier: 0.343
21
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
20
Brazilian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
19
United States Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P3
wrong
18
Mexican Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
17
Japanese Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P3
wrong
16
Russian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
15
Singapore Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VET · model had them P6
wrong
14
Italian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: LEC · model had them P2
wrong
13
Belgian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: LEC · model had them P3
wrong
12
Hungarian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
11
German Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
10
British Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
09
Austrian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P3
wrong
08
French Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
07
Canadian Grand Prix
Predicted: BOT · Actual: HAM · model had them P3
wrong
06
Monaco Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
05
Spanish Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
04
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P2
wrong
03
Chinese Grand Prix
Predicted: BOT · Actual: HAM · model had them P2
wrong
02
Bahrain Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
01
Australian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P3
wrong
./calibration
21 completed races · Brier 0.343 · dot size ∝ races · dashed line = perfect calibration
./accuracy by season 2019 recap →
Season
GP
Sprint
Overall
2026
8/14(57%)
3/5(60%)
11/19 (58%)
2025
9/24(38%)
3/6(50%)
12/30 (40%)
2024
7/24(29%)
4/6(67%)
11/30 (37%)
2023
18/22(82%)
4/6(67%)
22/28 (79%)
2022
13/22(59%)
2/3(67%)
15/25 (60%)
2021
7/22(32%)
2/3(67%)
9/25 (36%)
2020
11/17(65%)
—
11/17 (65%)
2019
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)
2018
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)