./prediction
2023 Race Predictions
weighted-v3 · 28 predictions · 79% accuracy
./season model ratings
Rank
Driver
Score
./prediction history
P1 Hit: 79%
Top 3 Hit: 89%
Top 5 Hit: 96%
Brier: 0.591
22
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
21
Las Vegas Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
20
São Paulo Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
20
São Paulo Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
19
Mexico City Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
18
United States Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
18
United States Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
17
Qatar Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
17
Qatar Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: PIA · model had them P4
wrong
16
Japanese Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
15
Singapore Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: SAI · model had them P6
wrong
14
Italian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
13
Dutch Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
12
Belgian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
12
Belgian Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
11
Hungarian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
10
British Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
09
Austrian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
09
Austrian Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
08
Canadian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
07
Spanish Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
06
Monaco Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
05
Miami Grand Prix
Predicted: ALO · Actual: VER · model had them P4
wrong
04
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: PER · model had them P2
wrong
04
Azerbaijan Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: VER · Actual: PER · model had them P2
wrong
03
Australian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
02
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: PER · model had them P3
wrong
01
Bahrain Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
./calibration
28 completed races · Brier 0.591 · dot size ∝ races · dashed line = perfect calibration
./accuracy by season 2023 recap →
Season
GP
Sprint
Overall
2026
8/14(57%)
3/5(60%)
11/19 (58%)
2025
9/24(38%)
3/6(50%)
12/30 (40%)
2024
7/24(29%)
4/6(67%)
11/30 (37%)
2023
18/22(82%)
4/6(67%)
22/28 (79%)
2022
13/22(59%)
2/3(67%)
15/25 (60%)
2021
7/22(32%)
2/3(67%)
9/25 (36%)
2020
11/17(65%)
—
11/17 (65%)
2019
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)
2018
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)