./prediction
2021 Race Predictions
weighted-v3 · 25 predictions · 36% accuracy
./season model ratings
Rank
Driver
Score
./prediction history
P1 Hit: 36%
Top 3 Hit: 84%
Top 5 Hit: 88%
Brier: 0.293
22
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
21
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
20
Qatar Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: HAM · model had them P2
wrong
19
São Paulo Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
19
São Paulo Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: BOT · Actual: BOT
correct
18
Mexico City Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
17
United States Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: VER
correct
16
Turkish Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: BOT · model had them P5
wrong
15
Russian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
14
Italian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: RIC · model had them P3
wrong
14
Italian Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: BOT · Actual: BOT
correct
13
Dutch Grand Prix
Predicted: LEC · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
12
Belgian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
11
Hungarian Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: OCO · model had them P13
wrong
10
British Grand Prix
Predicted: VER · Actual: HAM · model had them P2
wrong
10
British Grand Prix sprint
Predicted: BOT · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
09
Austrian Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
08
Styrian Grand Prix
Predicted: NOR · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
07
French Grand Prix
Predicted: SAI · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
06
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: PER · model had them P6
wrong
05
Monaco Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P2
wrong
04
Spanish Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
03
Portuguese Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
02
Emilia Romagna Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: VER · model had them P6
wrong
01
Bahrain Grand Prix
Predicted: HAM · Actual: HAM
correct
./calibration
25 completed races · Brier 0.293 · dot size ∝ races · dashed line = perfect calibration
./accuracy by season 2021 recap →
Season
GP
Sprint
Overall
2026
8/14(57%)
3/5(60%)
11/19 (58%)
2025
9/24(38%)
3/6(50%)
12/30 (40%)
2024
7/24(29%)
4/6(67%)
11/30 (37%)
2023
18/22(82%)
4/6(67%)
22/28 (79%)
2022
13/22(59%)
2/3(67%)
15/25 (60%)
2021
7/22(32%)
2/3(67%)
9/25 (36%)
2020
11/17(65%)
—
11/17 (65%)
2019
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)
2018
9/21(43%)
—
9/21 (43%)